European Gas Report - Week Ending October 18

Welcome to this week’s European Gas Market Report for week ending 18 October 2026. We will look at TTF prices, how they compare with Asia, EU storage, LNG exports, weather, power demand and major news.

TTF futures, the main European natural gas benchmark, settled at 87.547 EUR/MWh on Friday 16 October 2026, up 7.53% week-on-week, from 81.434 EUR/MWh on Friday 9 October 2026. Highest price this week was the Friday settling price, 87.547 EUR/MWh.

For comparison, JKM LNG settled at 29.925 USD/MMBtu, which converts into 91.080 EUR/MWh using the recent exchange rate of 1.1211 USD/EUR. JKM LNG price is higher by 4.04% than TTF, meaning that the TTF JKM spread inversed since last week. The Asian market is a competitor of the European market in terms of demand for natural gas. Such a narrowing spread will likely divert LNG vessels that were meant for Europe to Asia, since the netback value of selling LNG in Asia will become more attractive, leading to a reduction in supply of natural gas in Europe; bullish indicator.

Storage

Percentage of stored gas from full capacity in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and overall EU is lower than for the same date last year. The injections stay strong this week.

Overall, the storage indicates a stable high demand.

LNG

LNG arrivals into Europe: 

LNG arrivals into Europe have reduced week-on-week, with the total EU LNG arrivals down 3.33%, to 23,986.74 GWh. The four major demand countries of LNG also experienced a reduction in LNG arrival, expect for Italy which experienced an increase of 7.78%. The LNG supply is therefore reducing. This is a bullish indicator for TTF.

United States is the main supplier of LNG to Europe. The LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 131 Bcf, up 12 Bcf from the previous week. Thirty-five LNG vessels left U.S. ports, up four vessels from the previous week.

Pipelines

Norway pipeline flows:

Pipeline flow from Norway reduced slightly this week but overall remains quite stable.   

North African flows:

Flow from Tunisia and Libya to Italy and from Algeria to Spain remain very stable.   

The overall pipeline flow into Europe has slightly reduced this week but remains largely unchanged; an indication of a stable market.

Demand

Demand conditions strengthened across parts of Europe during the week, as cooler autumn weather increased heating requirements in several major gas-consuming markets. Temperatures in Germany, France and parts of the Alpine region declined, supporting a gradual increase in demand for residential and commercial heating. However, warmer-than-usual conditions persisted across parts of Southern and Eastern Europe, limiting the rise in heating demand in these markets.

As a result, gas demand from the residential and commercial sectors increased as heating needs became more significant, while gas-fired power generation continued to support electricity supply. Demand conditions remained mixed across the region, with cooler weather providing support in Western and Central Europe, while milder temperatures limited consumption further south and east. Looking ahead, gas demand is likely to increase as temperatures continue to fall and the heating season progresses, although regional weather differences will remain an important factor.

Demand indicates a slightly bullish market.

Major news

Surprisingly, no major news, which would affect the natural gas market, have occurred last week.

Stable indicator.

Balance Table

Total count: +1.5 points, indicating a bullish, but not aggressively bullish, market.  

Next week, expect TTF prices to experience an increase, but nothing major.