European Gas Report - Week Ending August 2

Welcome to this week’s European Gas Market Report for week ending 2 August 2026. We will look at TTF prices, how they compare with Asia, EU storage, LNG exports, weather, power demand and major news.

TTF futures, the main European natural gas benchmark, settled at 59.071 EUR/MWh on Friday 31 July 2026, down 7.20% week-on-week, from 63.649 EUR/MWh on Friday 24 July 2026. Highest price this week was 60.562 EUR/MWh.

For comparison, JKM LNG settled at 21.450 USD/MMBtu, which translates into 63.49 EUR/MWh using the recent exchange rate of 1.1527 USD/EUR. JKM LNG price is higher by 7.48% than TTF, meaning that the TTF JKM spread widened this week. The Asian market is a competitor of the European market in terms of demand for natural gas. Widening of the spread may divert LNG vessels that were meant for Europe to Asia, since the netback value of selling LNG in Asia can become more attractive, leading to a decrease in supply of natural gas in Europe; bullish indicator.

Storage

Percentage of stored gas from full capacity in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and overall EU is lower than for the same date last year. The injection reduced this week but remain strong.

Overall, the storage indicates a stable demand.

LNG

LNG arrivals into Europe: 

LNG arrivals into Europe have increased week-on-week, with the total EU LNG arrivals up 5.41%, to 18,790.69 GWh. The four major demand countries of LNG also experienced a rise in LNG arrival, especially Germany and France with 38.64% and 22.94% rises respectively. The LNG supply is therefore increasing. This is a bearish indicator for TTF.

United States is the main supplier of LNG to Europe. The LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 135 Bcf, up 9 Bcf from the previous week. Thirty-five LNG vessels left U.S. ports, up one vessel from the previous week.

Pipelines

Norway pipeline flows:

Pipeline flow from Norway remains stable, with minor changes.  

North African flows:

Flow from Tunisia and Libya to Italy and from Algeria to Spain remain very stable.

The overall pipeline flow into Europe is steady and largely unchanged; an indication of a stable market.

Demand

Much of Europe remained under the influence of hot weather during the week, with another heatwave affecting parts of Western and Southern Europe. Temperatures exceeded 40 °C in parts of France, Spain and Italy, increasing electricity demand for air conditioning and supporting gas-fired power generation, particularly during evening hours when solar generation declined. French nuclear output was also constrained by high river temperatures, increasing the need for gas-fired generation to balance the power system.

As a result, gas demand from the power sector remained above normal seasonal levels despite the summer period. Weather forecasts suggest that hot conditions are likely to continue across parts of Western Europe into early August, meaning cooling-related gas demand is expected to remain elevated.

Major news

US has put strikes on Iran on halt after requests from its allies in the Middle East. Iran says that a shipping deal through the Strait of Hormuz, which they have been working on with Oman, is close. These might lead to easing of tensions in the area. A strong bearish indicator.

A heatwave across Western and Southern Europe kept electricity demand elevated as air conditioning use remained high. At the same time, high river temperatures constrained some French nuclear generation, increasing reliance on gas-fired power plants. The combination of strong cooling demand and lower nuclear output helped keep gas demand for power generation above normal summer levels. A small bullish indicator.

Balance Table

Total count: -1.5 points, indicating a bearish market for next week.

Next week is expected to be bearish; TTF prices will fall.

The key commercial question is what will happen in the Middle East. Are the tensions going to ease and will the talks between US and Iran be productive?