European Gas Report - Week Ending July 12

Welcome to this week’s European Gas Market Report for week ending 12 July 2026. We will look at TTF prices, how they compare with Asia, EU storage, LNG exports, weather, power demand and major news.

TTF futures, the main European natural gas benchmark, settled at 48.655 EUR/MWh on Friday 10 July 2026, up 7.9% week-on-week, from 45.101 EUR/MWh on Friday 3 July 2026. Highest price this week was 50.102 EUR/MWh. The rise in prices is a result of tensions rising again between the US and Iran. 

For comparison, JKM LNG settled at 16.520 USD/MMBtu, which translates into 49.37 EUR/MWh using the recent exchange rate of 0.8759 EUR/USD. JKM LNG price is higher by only 1.47% than TTF, meaning that the TTF JKM spread narrowed strongly. The Asian market is a competitor of the European market in terms of demand for natural gas. Such a strong narrowing of the spread may divert LNG vessels that were meant for Asia to Europe, since the netback value of selling LNG in Asia can become much less attractive, leading to an increase in supply of natural gas in Europe; bearish indicator.

Storage

Percentage of stored gas from full capacity in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and overall EU is lower than for the same date last year. There have been strong injections this week, which may be weakened by heat around Europe next week, requiring more energy for cooling. Overall, the demand is strong, and the new heatwave just started, which indicates a bullish market.

LNG

LNG arrivals into Europe: 

LNG arrivals into Europe have reduced week-on-week, with the total EU LNG arrivals down 6.48%, to 20,257.57 GWh. The four major demand countries of LNG also experienced a fall in LNG send-out, expect for Italy which experienced an increase of 8.70%. The LNG supply is therefore reducing. This is a bullish indicator for TTF, especially during the injection season with a large demand for gas.

United States is the main supplier of LNG to Europe. The LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 117 Bcf, down 19 Bcf from the previous week. Thirty-one LNG vessels left U.S. ports, down five vessels from the previous week. This shows why the supply of LNG into Europe reduced; the main supplier exported less. Supports the bullish view for TTF.

Pipelines

Norway pipeline flows:

Pipeline flow from Norway to Germany reduced quite dramatically, down 17.13% week-on-week, but a massive increase in supply to Netherlands (up 50.27%) and stable supply to other nations means that the total pipeline flows from Norway to European nations remains steady.

North African flows:

Flow from Tunisia and Libya to Italy and from Algeria to Spain rose slightly.  

The overall pipeline flow into Europe is steady and largely unchanged; an indication of a stable market.

Demand

Europe remained under the influence of exceptionally hot weather last week, with another heatwave affecting large parts of Western and Southern Europe. Temperatures exceeded 40 °C in parts of France, Spain and Italy, increasing electricity demand for air conditioning and supporting gas-fired power generation, particularly during evening peak hours when solar output declined.

The sustained heat also continued to limit nuclear generation in parts of France due to cooling water constraints, further increasing reliance on gas-fired generation to balance the power system. As a result, gas demand from the power sector remained above typical seasonal levels despite the summer period.

Weather forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of Western Europe into the coming week, suggesting that cooling-related gas demand will remain elevated. Consequently, gas injections into storage may continue at a slower pace than would normally be expected for mid-July.

Major News

New strikes between the US and Iran. Tehran says that the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. The new escalation happened after Iran struck several vessels going through the strait. This is a strong bullish indicator, showing that the supply-squeeze might happen again.

A new heatwave hits Europe, with temperatures reaching over 35°C in France, Spain and Italy. Cooling will require more energy, thus the demand for natural gas is expected to be strong. Bullish indicator.

Balance Table

Total count: 4.0 points, indicating a strong bullish market for next week.

Next week is expected to be bullish; TTF prices will rise.

The key commercial question is whether the tensions in the Middle East will continue to grow. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, then the already bullish market will hit extreme growth, and the TTF price will skyrocket.