European Gas Report for Week Ending June 28

Welcome to this week’s European Gas Market Report for week ending 28 June 2026. We will look at TTF prices, how they compare with Asia, EU storage, LNG exports, weather, power demand and major news.

TTF futures, the main European natural gas benchmark, settled at 40.782 EUR/MWh on Friday 26 June 2026, a 3.1% fall from previous week’s settlement of 42.092 EUR/MWh on Friday 19 June 2026. Highest price last week was 42.041 EUR/MWh.

For comparison, JKM LNG settled at 15.525 USD/MMBtu, which translates into 46.55 EUR/MWh using the recent exchange rate of 1.1384 USD/EUR. JKM LNG price rose slightly from 15.310 USD/MMBtu, and is higher by 14.14% than TTF, meaning that the TTF JKM spread widened from around 8% last week. The Asian market is a competitor of the European market in terms of demand for natural gas. The widening of the spread may divert LNG vessels that were meant for Europe to Asia, since the netback value of selling LNG in Asia can become more attractive, leading to a decrease in supply of natural gas in Europe; bullish indicator.

Storage (26 June 2026)

Percentage of stored gas from full capacity in Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and overall EU is lower than for the same date last year. The size of injections reduced slightly week-on-week, which is an effect of the brutal heatwave requiring extra energy for cooling. The heatwave, that affected Europe for a week, is said to be over by the forecasts, but the demand for gas will not reduce, since it is the injection season. Sign of a stable market.

LNG

LNG arrivals into Europe: 

LNG arrivals into Europe have reduced week-on-week, with the total EU LNG send-out falling by 8.82%, to 23,880.63 GWh. The four major demand countries of LNG also experienced a fall in LNG send-out, expect for Italy which experienced a large increase of 10.69%. The LNG supply is therefore reducing, which may have been caused by the widening in the JKM-TTF spread, making LNG carriers reroute to Asia instead of Europe. This is a bullish indicator for TTF, especially during the injection season with a large demand for gas.

United States is the main supplier of LNG to Europe. Between June 17 and June 24, the LNG-carrying capacity of vessels departing U.S. ports was 135 Bcf, up 2 Bcf from the previous week. Thirty-five LNG vessels left U.S. ports, down one vessel from the previous week. The supply of LNG from the US remains quite stable.  

Pipelines

Norway pipeline flows:

Total pipeline flows from Norway to European nations increased this week, with the Netherlands experiencing a dramatic 16.08% rise in flows. This cancels out the reduction is LNG supply, leaving the natural gas supply stable.

North African flows:

Flow from Tunisia and Libya to Italy and from Morocco and Algeria to Spain reduced.  

Even with a reduction in the supply from North Africa, the overall pipeline flow into Europe is steady and largely unchanged, so the TTF price move was not an effect of pipelines.

Demand

Europe experienced a strong heatwave last week, with temperatures in Western and Southern Europe being above seasonal norms, reaching 40 °C.

Hotter temperatures led to a modest increase in cooling demand, particularly in urban power systems, where air conditioning load increases electricity consumption. This indirectly supported gas demand through higher gas-fired power generation in some regions.

The heatwave is now over, and the forecasts show normal summer temperatures for the week to come. Yet, the gas demand will not fall. Last week, the injections reduced to power cooling, now the injections will go back to normal. Demand remains stable.

Major news

United States have conducted a new strike on Iran after Iranian drones struck a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. For the last two weeks, the situation in the Middle East was deescalating, with a ceasefire being agreed upon by both sides. The ceasefire is now violated, and the tension might start rising again. This is a bullish sign for the natural gas market.

Heatwave in Europe is finally over. Temperatures have returned to the norms for this time of the year, meaning less use of energy for cooling, but the demand for natural gas will not fall, since we are in the middle of the injection season.

The new rules, that the EU wants to implement on methane imports, are being attacked, and Germany is now urging to suspend these rules. The methane regulations, that are due to come in January 2027, can pose a real danger to the EU gas supplies. Qatar and the US are also applying pressure to suspend these rules before they come into play.

Balance Table

Total count: 1.5 points, indicating a bullish market for next week.

Next week is expected to be bullish; TTF prices will rise.

The key commercial question is whether the tensions in the Middle East, that seemed to ease up in the past weeks, but once again started to become heated, will keep rising or not. If the ceasefire will be violated again, the new tension will strike the gas market, leading to a strong bullish week. If relations become better, the market will get close to a stable zone.